Yahoo Finance outlines a speculative SpaceX valuation scenario for 2029

SpaceX's growth case

Yahoo Finance says SpaceX has quickly become one of the market's most closely watched stocks. In the article's scenario, the company could generate about $2 trillion in revenue by 2030 and finish 2029 with a stock price near $570. The piece says this is a projection based on how the business might expand over the next several years.

New markets and Starship expansion

According to Yahoo Finance, SpaceX is aiming at several future businesses, including orbital data centers, asteroid mining, and Earth-to-Earth cargo transport using suborbital rockets. The article says success in those areas depends on SpaceX being able to reliably recover and reuse both stages of its Starship rockets after launch. It adds that a successful reusable system would support higher launch frequency and more ambitious projects.

The article says SpaceX wants Starship, which is larger than its Falcon rockets, to begin flying weekly in the first half of next year and possibly twice a week in the second half. Yahoo Finance says faster recovery, refurbishment, and reuse of Starship would let the company carry larger payloads and increase revenue-producing launches, which it says could change space economics and support stronger growth.

Starlink, cellphone ambitions, and Cursor

Yahoo Finance reports that SpaceX also wants to challenge parts of the U.S. mobile phone market. It says Starlink satellite broadband should remain an important revenue source as the company adds more commercial, enterprise, and government customers. At the same time, the article says a full terrestrial cellphone network would likely take four to six years, so it is described as a medium-term opportunity rather than an immediate one.

The article also says a new growth driver could be AI coding through SpaceX's recent acquisition of Cursor. Yahoo Finance describes Cursor as a workflow interface that can use its own and other AI models to help users write, edit, debug, and review code. It says Morgan Stanley expects Cursor's annual recurring revenue, as part of SpaceX, to rise from $8 billion at the end of 2026 to about $33 billion by the end of 2030.

AI infrastructure as the biggest opportunity

Yahoo Finance says the largest opportunity may come from AI infrastructure, which it says could make SpaceX the world's biggest neocloud provider. The article says SpaceX expects to end this year with up to 3 gigawatts of compute capacity and plans to add about 10 more gigawatts in 2027. It also says Elon Musk has described a goal of adding 20 gigawatts of capacity next year.

The article says SpaceX is currently receiving strong leasing rates for its compute power, with a payback period of about one year. It says a gigawatt of computing power built on Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform costs about $50 billion, which the article says suggests SpaceX is taking in at least that much revenue per gigawatt each year. Yahoo Finance says this lines up with Musk's comment that SpaceX could end 2027 with annual recurring revenue between $500 billion and $1 trillion.

Valuation scenario and risks

According to Yahoo Finance, if SpaceX adds 10 gigawatts of new compute capacity each year, its "super intelligence" segment could exceed $2 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2030. The article says that would likely require capital raising, and it assumes dilution would start at 10% and then decline by 1 percentage point each year. It notes that actual results would depend on costs, capital spending needs, and the share price.

Yahoo Finance says that combining AI infrastructure with Starlink, Cursor, and rocket launches could produce $2 trillion in revenue in 2030. Under the article's assumption of a 5 times forward price-to-sales multiple, which it says Tesla has often traded at, SpaceX would be worth around $570 by the end of 2029. The article says that would mean a gain of more than 300% over three years.

The main risk, Yahoo Finance says, is that compute rental prices could decline as SpaceX adds more capacity. The piece ends by noting that The Motley Fool's analysts did not include SpaceX among their current top stock picks, and it includes disclosures about the author and The Motley Fool's positions.