NextBigFuture compares Tesla and SpaceX outlooks for 2027

SpaceX and Tesla are presented as a 2027 comparison

NextBigFuture says the usual view of SpaceX as a rocket company valued at $2 trillion is outdated. The article says SpaceX revenue moved from $7.6 billion in Q2 to $14.6 billion in Q3, which it describes as nearly doubling in one quarter. It also says Elon Musk now expects a $500 billion to $1 trillion revenue run rate by the end of 2027. The piece frames the main question for people who own Tesla or want to own SpaceX, while noting a warning to verify the $SPCX ticker.

The article says it will compare the two companies in four steps: revenue, growth, valuation multiples versus Nvidia and Apple, and expected share prices at different points in 2027. It then moves to Tesla’s robotaxi rollout.

Tesla robotaxi and FSD updates

NextBigFuture says Tesla robotaxis are ramping. It reports 718 Tesla robotaxis in Austin and says the fleet is growing by about 20% per week. The article says scaling the five other existing robotaxi cities to Austin density would bring the total to about 10,000 robotaxis.

It also says FSD 15.x going wide could double or triple Tesla’s earnings. On Tesla’s last earnings call, according to the article, the company said it is reaching real volume on “pretty much everything” in Q2 or Q3. The piece adds that Tesla is close to 1,000 unsupervised vehicles in Texas and Florida, while flagging that the 1,000 figure and timing should be verified against the 718 Austin count.

SpaceX revenue, data centers, and growth assumptions

NextBigFuture says SpaceX is building mini hard AI data centers. The author estimates each one pays for itself in about six months. The article attributes to Ark Invest and Deutsche Bank Research an estimate that SpaceX AI data center costs about $30 billion to $31 billion per gigawatt to build and produces about $26 billion to $27 billion a year.

The piece says SpaceX told investors on its Q3 earnings call that it will have 440,000 Rubin chips working by the end of the first half of 2027. It also says Musk said he is “utterly confident” about the first ten gigawatts being added to the 3 gigawatts completed at the end of 206, with the land, power, chips, and other systems already done and producing revenue. The article appears to be referring to an end-of-2026 target, though it reproduces the year as 206.

NextBigFuture says Jensen Huang told Brad Gerstner that the bottleneck is not chips, but land, power, and the building shell. The article claims SpaceX has solved those constraints. It says drone video from the Rio Grande Valley shows SpaceX moving from dirt to a building in about a month. The article also says the company is building in Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee, and possibly elsewhere, and that it is mass-producing these data centers. According to the piece, SpaceX will supply the land, power, shell, and cooling, with chips being the only missing piece.

Revenue path and valuation comparison

The article says the company moved from $7.6 billion to $14.6 billion across recent quarters and then estimates the next quarter at about $30 billion. It says SpaceX guided for $33 billion to $37 billion in Q1 2027, but calls that sandbagging and says the author expects $40 billion to $50 billion instead.

From there, the article projects about $70 billion in Q2 and then another near-doubling in Q3. By the end of 2027, it says SpaceX could be at a $50 billion monthly run rate, or about $600 billion per year, which would fit within Musk’s $500 billion to $1 trillion range. It also says adding the months implies about $300 billion of 2027 revenue at very high margins. The article says that would mean $150 billion to $200 billion in profit, though it flags a verification note that the original recording said “7%.”

NextBigFuture says that level of profit would place SpaceX in the same general range as Nvidia and Apple, which it says also generate about $150 billion to $200 billion a year in profit. The article argues SpaceX would be growing much faster, at 300%, 400%, or 500% a year. It says that kind of expansion would create a favorable price-to-earnings-to-growth relationship. If SpaceX reaches a $1 trillion revenue run rate, the piece says, it would be comparable to Nvidia and could move into the valuation zone of the top three to five companies worth $4 trillion to $5 trillion each.

2027 share-price forecast and Tesla’s role

NextBigFuture gives a forecast for share prices at several points in 2027. In January 2027, it expects earnings around January 20 to show about $25 billion to $30 billion of revenue and close to $10 billion of profit, plus Starship catches and reflights. The article says that would imply SpaceX at about $200 to $250 per share, or roughly $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion. It says Tesla could be near all-time highs of about $500 per share, or about a $2 trillion valuation. Under that setup, the article says one company would be worth about $3 trillion and the other about $2 trillion, which it says would still support merger math.

For April 2027, the article says SpaceX could report Q1 revenue of $40 billion to $50 billion, which would confirm the story. It says there could be a pause if data centers are finished but waiting for Rubin chips. The article says Rubin is about three times better than GB300, so it may make sense to give up two or three months of revenue to fill the shells with Rubin.

For July 2027, the article says that if SpaceX is doing $70 billion to $100 billion in quarterly revenue and about $50 billion in profit, the market will accept the thesis. It says that would value SpaceX at about $500 per share, or around $6 trillion. The article says Tesla would still be around $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion unless it executes major robotaxi scaling and Teslabot progress. If Tesla shows factory production ramping and Optimus being used at scale in factories and robotaxi scaling, the article says it could rise above $600 to $800 and keep up. If Tesla delays again and only has improved FSD revenue, the article says the shares may stay around $450 to $500.

The article’s stated view, disclosures, and uncertainty

NextBigFuture says the author has held Tesla for years and is frustrated by what he sees as another five years of waiting. The article says Tesla needs to prove robotaxi and Optimus scaling through more vehicles, more cities, higher factory production, and cost savings appearing in the balance sheet. It says Tesla needs to execute in Q2 to match a $4 trillion to $5 trillion SpaceX.

In its closing view, the article says SpaceX has more upside in 2027. It says the author is very confident SpaceX can rise 3x to 5x next year, and pretty confident Tesla can rise 2x, possibly 3x, from current levels without a merger. It also says the longer-term potential is a 10x move by mid-2028. The article describes Tesla as a hedge if a SpaceX-Tesla merger is delayed, and says people worried about delay could build a position in SpaceX instead.

The piece adds that the author holds about equal amounts of both and is not selling Tesla to buy SpaceX because he is already covered. It says tax situation may affect whether switching makes sense, and advises readers to size taxes and risk for themselves.

The article ends with a disclaimer that nothing in it or the video is financial, investment, or trading advice. It says the forecasts, models, fleet counts, revenue, valuation, and timing projections are Brian Wang’s opinions and estimates, not company guidance, and may be wrong. It also says prediction-market trading involves risk of loss. The disclosure says the post is sponsored by Kalshi, that Brian Wang is paid when readers sign up through his link, and that new users receive a $50 sign-up bonus.