SemiAnalysis says SpaceX could reach 13 GW of data center capacity by 2027

SpaceX’s data center buildout plan

Stocktwits reported that SemiAnalysis believes SpaceX could reach 13 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2027. The firm said that goal appears achievable and raised SpaceX’s target from 10 gigawatts after earlier doubts about whether the plan could work. SemiAnalysis said the company may be the fastest data center builder in the world, including compared with Chinese peers.

The analysts said the buildout could match the capacity Google accumulated over nearly three decades in just 18 months. They also said this would be the largest amount of data center capacity built by one company in that span, and described it as roughly equal to Google’s total from 1999 through 2026.

Sites under construction and project timelines

According to SemiAnalysis, it has identified more than 9 gigawatts of SpaceX capacity across sites, with 3.6 gigawatts already under construction. The firm cited several projects as examples of the company’s pace. It said MiniHard, part of SpaceX’s Colossus 2 complex, took about five months to build. It also said Gun Range, a facility on a former police training site in Southaven, Mississippi, is aiming for a four-month timeline.

The analysts said that, to their knowledge, this would be the fastest greenfield data center built at scale. They added that many other builders are working on 8- to 12-month schedules, while SpaceX has cut those timelines in half.

Faster projects and Texas expansion

SemiAnalysis said Project SPAM could move even faster. Construction began last month, and the first computing systems are expected to start running in December. The firm said that timeline could beat the first Colossus II deployment’s 91-day schedule. It also noted that SpaceX’s initial Colossus cluster took 122 days to come online.

The report said SpaceX is also adapting its Starbase rocket campus in Texas for two data centers that could support well over 1 gigawatt. According to SemiAnalysis, work moved from ground clearing in August to frames and roofs being built at the same time by September. The analysts said this showed multiple construction steps being carried out in parallel. SemiAnalysis also said there may be a data center at Terafab, Musk’s proposed Texas chip factory, that could serve outside customers.

Power supply, partners, and contracts

Stocktwits reported that SemiAnalysis sees a possible role for Tesla in speeding construction by supplying prefabricated mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems. The analysts said SpaceX and Tesla could build gigawatts with fewer constraints if they manage global supply chains well. They added that Tesla may soon become more than a battery storage merchant to SpaceX.

The article said SpaceX expanded into AI through its February acquisition of xAI and through its Colossus computing infrastructure. It said Anthropic agreed in May to use all of Colossus 1’s capacity, covering more than 300 megawatts and 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. It also said Google agreed separately to use about 110,000 GPUs, with payments set at $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029. Stocktwits reported that the two agreements have a combined annual contract value of $26 billion.

SemiAnalysis also flagged a power-supply issue. The firm said it tracks more than 8 gigawatts of likely generation capacity feeding SpaceX directly, compared with more than 9 gigawatts of planned data center capacity. The analysts said the sites are being built so quickly that power supply is often identified only after construction is underway. At Colossus 2, they said 5.9 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, gas generation, and a planned grid connection may help offset turbine limits, but they still estimate a shortfall of more than 300 megawatts. They said more efficient designs, workload changes, and battery storage could help close the gap if their power assumptions are correct.

Market reaction and sentiment

Stocktwits said SPCX shares rose nearly 4% on Tuesday to $141.31, marking a second straight day of gains. The article also said the stock is down 12% so far this year.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX moved to bearish from neutral a week earlier, with message volume described as low. The article quoted one user saying, “$SPCX when your the Richest Man “Elon” on the planet! You can make anything happen! That’s why SpaceX is the most exciting stock to own, not trade”. Another user said retail often buys when Musk discusses possibilities, while insiders sell unlocked shares.