SpaceX shares rose after first lockup expiration as more unlocks loom

Lockup expiry did not trigger the expected selloff

TradingKey reports that SpaceX’s first post-IPO lockup expired on August 6 without the sharp drop some market participants had expected. The company’s shares were initially pushed down to an intraday low of about $105, but buying later lifted them to a 2.6% gain by the close. TradingKey says the unlock made about 911.5 million shares available for possible sale, which it describes as a public-sale opportunity worth roughly $100 billion and as a move that more than doubled the stock’s float.

The report says the tradable share count rose from about 639 million to about 1.55 billion shares. It also says the stock’s current price is around $114, below the $135 IPO price and well below the June level of $135, which it describes as a 50% decline from that point. TradingKey says the market appeared able to absorb the added supply, even though the unlock was historically large.

Why the market reaction was limited

According to TradingKey, the main reason the stock did not crash is that shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean they will all be sold. The report cites Mizuho, which said many unlocked shares may not actually trade. It also says one early SpaceX investor publicly indicated plans to sell his entire stake and take gains, signaling that some new supply may still reach the market.

TradingKey says the first unlock covered 20% of SpaceX’s total restricted share supply. It also notes that the stock reached an all-time low of $105 at the open before improving during the session, and says the shares have not “collided” with the market in the way some had feared.

More supply is expected later this year

The report says the unlock was only the beginning of a staggered process that will continue for months. TradingKey says another roughly 319 million shares could be released as soon as August 12, with additional tranches expected in September and October. It also says a larger release may follow the company’s third-quarter earnings report, and that more than 4 billion shares could be released by year-end.

TradingKey adds that a separate trigger that could have accelerated more share sales did not take effect because the stock traded below its IPO price rather than 30% above it. The report says the only major block that remains locked is Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion shares, which it says are expected to stay locked until mid-2027.

Earnings, spending and valuation concerns

TradingKey says SpaceX’s shares had already fallen sharply after the company’s first earnings report as a public company. The report says revenue rose 92% to $7.81 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion, and net loss improved to $541 million. Even so, TradingKey says the company spent close to $18.4 billion during the quarter, much of it on artificial intelligence projects, and continued to lose money.

The report says the stock fell about 14% on August 5 before the lockup expiry day. It says the decline from the June peak of $225.64 has cut the stock’s value by a little more than half. TradingKey also says the company is now valued at about $1.4 trillion and that the stock trades about 15% below its $135 IPO price.

Bulls, bears and the questions still open

TradingKey says Morgan Stanley views the pullback as an opportunity and rates the stock Overweight with a $300 price target. The firm, according to the report, says SpaceX has a unique position across launch, connectivity and AI. TradingKey also says Morgan Stanley would assign a $0 value to the AI business if the stock fell to $100, while valuing the space and Starlink businesses instead.

The report says retail investors are more skeptical, with some expecting the stock to fall as low as $50 as insider shares continue to unlock. It also says Musk outlined a revenue target of $1 trillion by 2030 on the earnings call, with better odds of reaching it by 2029, and said the company is focusing on rapid development of Starlink Next Gen, Starship and Grok 4.5 AI development.

TradingKey says the central unanswered question is whether SpaceX’s growth plans can be justified while the company burns cash at a roughly $1.4 trillion valuation. It says the stock’s near-term technical levels include resistance at $126.64, $129.60 and $135.18, and support at $114.35, $106.05 and $98.33. The report also says the relative strength index was 47, improving from oversold territory but still below 50.

What the article says about the near term

TradingKey says the first lockup expiration was a milestone for the company because the stock did not collapse when a large amount of insider supply became eligible for sale. Still, the report says the supply overhang is not finished and that the market faces more unlocks before year-end. It also says the shares may remain sensitive to the next U.S. jobs report, which it says is due Friday and can influence tech stocks. As of the report, TradingKey says SpaceX traded at about $114, leaving the company below its IPO price and still in the middle of a larger debate over valuation, spending and future share releases.