SpaceX falls after election results as traders await Musk-Baron event

Stock moves after the election

BigGo Finance reports that SpaceX (SPCX) shares declined in Wednesday trading after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections. Investors interpreted that result as increasing the odds of tighter federal scrutiny of SpaceX's government contracts, its data-center expansion and the proposed combination with Tesla. The article says the drop added to a difficult stretch for the stock, which has not held onto gains since its June listing and is again trading close to its IPO price.

Focus shifts to Baron Capital conference

According to BigGo Finance, attention is now on Friday, Nov. 6, when Baron Capital holds its 33rd annual investment conference at Lincoln Center in New York. Elon Musk is scheduled to appear virtually in a fireside conversation with founder Ron Baron. The article says some market watchers think the appearance could change how investors talk about SpaceX, especially because Wall Street is still trying to determine how to value the company.

BigGo Finance notes that Baron Capital has long-standing ties to Musk. The firm bought about $400 million of Tesla stock between 2014 and 2016, and its second-quarter 2026 shareholder letter said that position has produced $7.7 billion in cumulative profit. Baron has also owned SpaceX since 2017, and SpaceX represented a little more than 30% of the firm's $69 billion in assets under management as of June 30, making it its largest holding.

Mixed expectations around Musk's appearance

The article cites Adam Spatacco, described as a five-star investor and Motley Fool contributor, who said the event could push the stock higher, while warning that past appearances do not guarantee gains. BigGo Finance reports that when Musk appeared at Baron Capital's 2022 conference, Tesla shares fell that day and kept declining into the following week. Spatacco said the broader point is that a chief executive's visibility does not automatically lift a stock.

Spatacco wrote, according to the article, that SpaceX could see a sharp rally after the conference if Musk gives positive updates that improve the company's long-term growth outlook. He also cautioned investors not to buy purely on speculation that the two longtime business partners will have an upbeat exchange.

Operating results and business segments

BigGo Finance says the bullish case for a rebound partly rests on the gap between SpaceX's share price and its operating performance. Third-quarter revenue rose 161% from a year earlier to $14.58 billion, above the $12.54 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA increased 306% to $8.8 billion, and earnings came in at $0.35 a share versus expectations of $0.10.

The article says SpaceX's three businesses are at different stages. Connectivity generates most of the operating profit, the launch business is about break-even, and the AI segment has recently turned profitable while taking on most of the capital spending. BigGo Finance notes that Connectivity includes Starlink, while Super Intelligence refers to AI compute operations. It says the Super Intelligence segment's first quarterly operating profit came after $1.2 billion in share-based compensation tied to the Cursor acquisition.

Revenue details across launch, Starlink and AI

Space revenue increased 6% to $1.77 billion, according to the article. SpaceX completed 12 customer launches during the quarter, including NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope mission. It also said it added 18 National Security Space Launch missions and three NASA ISS crew missions to its pipeline. BigGo Finance says federal programs are the portion of the business most exposed to the incoming Congress.

The connectivity unit, which includes Starlink, posted 69% revenue growth to $5.2 billion. The service added 1.6 million consumer subscribers, bringing the total to 13.6 million. Monthly consumer average revenue per user was $69, up from $66 in the second quarter but below $83 a year earlier. Enterprise and government connectivity revenue climbed 91% to $2.1 billion, and more than 3,800 aircraft were equipped with Starlink at the end of September.

BigGo Finance also reports uneven expansion in Asia. In Japan, KDDI signed what the article calls Asia's first Starlink Mobile V2 contract with SpaceX on Aug. 10, 2026, aiming for high-speed data and VoLTE voice service by 2027. KDDI said the satellites are designed to deliver about 20 times the throughput per satellite and 100 times the data density of the first generation. In Taiwan, lawmakers passed an amendment in July that exempted satellite telecom operators from foreign-ownership limits and the requirement that the chairperson be Taiwanese, subject to national-security and competition conditions. However, Minister of Digital Affairs Lin Yi-jing said Starlink has not been actively pursuing the market because Taiwan's 99.9% 4G/5G coverage may limit commercial opportunity.

The Super Intelligence segment generated $7.6 billion in revenue, helped by cloud agreements and a $608 million contribution from the Cursor acquisition, which closed in August.

Spending plans, Starship milestones and finances

BigGo Finance says management increased its capital-spending outlook, guiding fourth-quarter 2026 capital expenditures to $35 billion to $40 billion, up from $19.6 billion in the third quarter, as it tries to speed up AI compute expansion. Musk expects nameplate compute capacity of 2.5 to 3 gigawatts by December 2026 and at least 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027. The article says power supply, cooling and electrical infrastructure are still constraints, and SpaceX is developing turbine components internally to help address supply issues. CFO Bret Johnsen pointed to cloud demand and deployments with payback periods of less than a year.

On Starship, Musk said Flight 14 was an important step because it was the company's first revenue-generating Starship mission and its first orbital flight. The mission deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites and, according to SpaceX, added about 10 times the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9 Starlink launch. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said the company will try to recover both stages on Flight 15 and aims for its first second-stage reflight in early 2027. Management also reaffirmed a $100 billion annual recurring revenue target for December 2026, while Johnsen projected first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion.

Musk confirmed that independent special committees are reviewing a possible combination with Tesla, although the terms have not been agreed. The article says management pointed to operating cash flow, access to investment-grade debt and possible financing partnerships as funding sources for the buildout.

Balance sheet, financing and analyst views

According to BigGo Finance, SpaceX ended September with $51.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $38.6 billion in marketable securities, against $38.8 billion of debt and finance leases. On Oct. 26, it signed a roughly $40 billion master finance lease for NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs with an entity managed by Apollo Global Management. Separately, on Oct. 8, the company agreed to acquire up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile, with closing expected in the first half of 2027 pending regulatory approval.

The article says analyst sentiment is still broadly positive. SpaceX has a Strong Buy consensus based on 29 Buy ratings, 5 Holds and 1 Sell, with an average price target of $250.34, or about 82% above current levels one year out. BigGo Finance notes that JPMorgan raised its target to $240 on Oct. 21 after third-quarter results, UBS lifted its target to $230 from $210 the same day, and Morgan Stanley has kept a $300 target since early October.

The article also cites a separate analysis that questioned whether SpaceX should be a long-term holding because of its dual-class structure, under which Musk's Class B shares carry 10 votes each while public Class A shares carry one vote. That analysis said outside shareholders have limited influence and pointed to the stock's swing from a post-IPO high near $226 to a low around $105. It also questioned how a company so closely tied to Musk's attention across Tesla, X and xAI should be viewed over a five-year period.

BigGo Finance says the immediate question is whether Friday's appearance will produce specific targets or demand data that reset expectations, or whether it will repeat 2022, when the spotlight alone did not push the stock higher.