Motley Fool compares SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile on cash and valuation

Revenue and business mix

The Motley Fool reports that SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile all posted revenue, but from very different sources. SpaceX reported about $14.6 billion in third-quarter revenue, with more than half coming from its Super Intelligence business, formerly called the artificial intelligence business, rather than from its core space work. The company’s other segments are Space, which makes and launches reusable rockets, and Connectivity, which provides satellite internet through Starlink.

Rocket Lab reported $234 million in its fiscal second quarter, ended June 30, with most of that coming from Space Systems. That division makes spacecraft and satellite components. Its Launch Services segment sends satellites and other payloads into space.

AST SpaceMobile reported $31.5 million in its fiscal second quarter, also ended June 30, and the company had no recognized revenue from its planned satellite-cellular service. The Motley Fool says AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite-based cellular broadband network intended to connect ordinary smartphones directly to satellites through existing mobile operators.

Cash flow matters more than sales

The article says revenue by itself does not decide which stock is the better investment. The more important question is whether these businesses can produce future cash flow relative to their current valuations.

SpaceX’s Connectivity segment produced $2.37 billion in operating profit, and the SI segment produced $431 million in the third quarter. Even so, the article says SI accounted for about $40 billion of SpaceX’s $48.1 billion in capital expenditures during the first nine months of 2026. SpaceX also reported $13.1 billion in operating cash flow and nearly $35 billion in negative free cash flow over that same period.

The Motley Fool says SpaceX’s profitable Connectivity business is not yet producing enough cash to offset the company’s heavy AI infrastructure spending. It also notes that one unnamed SI customer accounted for 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, which was about two-thirds of SI revenue, creating concentration risk if that customer changes spending.

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are also still free cash flow negative. In the first six months of 2026, Rocket Lab reported about $188 million in negative free cash flow, while AST SpaceMobile reported roughly $1 billion.

Growth plans and shareholder risks

The article says Rocket Lab ended the second quarter with a $2.36 billion backlog, and 45.5% of that is expected to turn into revenue by June 2027. That gives investors some visibility, although revenue still depends on completing launch and spacecraft contracts. The first launch of Rocket Lab’s next-generation Neutron rocket has been delayed to 2027, which may postpone revenue from the new rocket while development costs continue.

The Motley Fool also says Rocket Lab’s planned purchase of Iridium Communications could add an established satellite-services business. Iridium reported $245.7 million in third-quarter revenue, with services making up 76% of that total. At the same time, Rocket Lab raised $1.94 billion in September by issuing 29.3 million shares, mostly to fund the deal. Iridium’s term loans totaled about $1.78 billion as of June 30 and are expected to remain after the transaction closes, with a guarantee from Rocket Lab’s operating subsidiary.

For AST SpaceMobile, management estimates it needs 45 to 60 operating BlueBird satellites to provide continuous service in markets including the U.S., Europe and Japan. The company says it has partnerships with mobile operators that serve more than 3 billion subscribers, but the article says it is still unclear how many customers will actually use the service or how much revenue they will generate. AST SpaceMobile says it has enough funding to build and launch about 90 satellites, but it still must turn that network into recurring revenue that covers operating costs.

Valuation and the article’s ranking

As of Oct. 30, the three companies traded at 57 times, 40.8 times and 101.8 times trailing-12-month sales, respectively, for SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. The article says those valuations already assume strong future growth.

AST SpaceMobile’s valuation is described as especially high. The company expects 2026 revenue of $150 million to $200 million, partly from U.S. government contracts. Even at the top of that range, the article says its $13 billion market value would still be more than 61 times projected 2026 revenue. AST SpaceMobile also expects to recognize only 6.6% of its $1.2 billion in remaining contractual performance obligations as revenue by June 2027, showing that much of the contracted work will take time to show up in reported sales.

The Motley Fool says Rocket Lab appears to be the best choice on a risk-reward basis, though it also calls the valuation rich. SpaceX is ranked second because Starlink profitability is offset by large AI spending. AST SpaceMobile is ranked third because its network has growth potential, but commercial revenue and long-term profitability have not yet been demonstrated.