Motley Fool says SpaceX's IPO path may warn Anthropic investors

Anthropic's filing sets up an IPO

According to The Motley Fool, Anthropic this week released its S-1 filing, which companies must submit to the Securities and Exchange Commission before an initial public offering. The article says many investors have been eager for access to the AI lab through the market, but it argues that the upcoming debut should be viewed carefully.

Why SpaceX is being used as a comparison

The Motley Fool says some investors may expect Anthropic's public debut to resemble SpaceX's. It recalls that SpaceX opened for trading on June 12 at $150 per share, climbed above $225 in its first few days, then fell to around $108 before recovering somewhat. Even after that rebound, the stock remained below its first-day opening price, according to the article.

Concerns around valuation, spending, and early selling pressure

The article says Anthropic's main rivals in AI models are OpenAI, which built ChatGPT, and Alphabet, which developed Google Gemini. It says all three companies are seeing heavy user adoption and that Anthropic could produce strong long-term returns. At the same time, The Motley Fool says near-term concerns could weigh on the stock, including heavy spending on artificial intelligence and infrastructure and uncertainty over whether those investments will generate profitable returns. It adds that similar worries have helped drive sell-offs in other AI stocks.

IPO mechanics can add extra risk

The Motley Fool says Anthropic, like other IPO stocks, would face lock-up expirations during its first year as a public company. When those periods end, more shares held by pre-IPO owners become available to sell on the Nasdaq, which can increase supply and pressure the share price. The article describes these issues as common in large IPOs during their first 12 months.

Buffett's caution about IPO timing

The piece also points to Warren Buffett's long-held skepticism about IPOs. It quotes him as saying, "An IPO is like a negotiated transaction," and explains that his view is that sellers choose the timing, which may not favor new public investors. The article says companies typically go public to raise capital rather than to create an attractive investment for buyers, and it notes that they often choose bull-market conditions, when valuations are higher.

What investors should keep in mind

The Motley Fool says that this timing can leave early IPO buyers more exposed to a sector downturn or a broad market decline. It concludes that SpaceX's path is only one example among many IPO cautionary tales, and says Anthropic's long-term prospects may be bright, but investors may want to avoid buying immediately after the stock begins trading.