Yahoo Finance weighs Democratic control and SpaceX’s government exposure

Election odds and SpaceX’s market setup

Yahoo Finance says betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of winning the House on Tuesday and about a 70% chance of taking the Senate. The article frames this as SpaceX’s first election as a public company. It says SpaceX is valued at about $1.83 trillion, with shares trading at the $135 IPO price from June.

Government money and the size of SpaceX’s business

According to Yahoo Finance, SpaceX gets money directly from the budget Congress writes, unlike Tesla or Nvidia. The article says Starlink makes up most of SpaceX’s $18.7 billion in 2025 sales, while the federal government represents 20.9% of 2025 revenue as reported in the S-1, or about $3.9 billion. It also says SpaceX’s market value can move by about $47 billion on a typical trading day, based on a median daily move since the June listing. The article compares that figure with the company’s yearly sales to the U.S. government.

Defense contracts and where Democrats could act

Yahoo Finance says Democrats could reduce SpaceX’s missile-defense funding even if they increase NASA funding. The article identifies Golden Dome as the main area of exposure. It says the Space Force awarded SpaceX $4.16 billion on May 29, 2026, for missile-tracking satellites due to be working by 2028, along with about $2.29 billion for a secure satellite network and a share of as much as $3.2 billion in interceptor prototypes. SpaceX’s president said the company won more than $6 billion in new government contracts in the second quarter. The article says Congress cannot easily replace SpaceX because it launches most of what the military puts into orbit.

NASA support versus White House cuts

The article says Democrats may help SpaceX on NASA funding because the proposed cut came from the White House, not Congress. It says the 2027 request includes $18.8 billion for NASA, which is 23% below the $24.4 billion Congress approved for 2026. A top House appropriator for NASA called that request “disappointing,” according to the article. Yahoo Finance says Congress often protects NASA and Democrats tend to support science budgets. It adds that SpaceX builds the Moon lander and carries crews, making NASA its biggest civilian customer.

Oversight, subpoenas and investor risk

Yahoo Finance says Rep. Jasmine Crockett has said Democrats would subpoena Elon Musk if they win the House. The article also says Politico reported that inquiries into Musk’s DOGE role and his companies’ federal deals are being discussed. It says Musk has spent about $366 million this cycle, mostly to help Republicans keep control of Congress. If Democrats win, the article says, the people Musk spent against would gain subpoena power. It also says hearings and questions about Starshield, Golden Dome and SpaceX’s $17 billion purchase of airwaves from EchoStar would land on shareholders, while FCC licensing rules remain outside House control.

How the article says the outcome could look

Yahoo Finance says SpaceX’s government money would likely remain largely intact, but its CEO would face more demands on his time. The article says the stock is 33% below its 52-week high and down 11% over the past month. It says the shares are mainly valued on Starlink and Starship rather than any single contract. The article’s bottom line is that a Democratic House could slow Golden Dome funding and restore NASA money, which it describes as roughly offsetting for a company where government business was about one-fifth of 2025 sales, while the added cost would be more oversight in SpaceX’s first year as a public company.