The Motley Fool outlines three main risks for SpaceX in 2027 and later

Political exposure could draw more scrutiny

The Motley Fool says Elon Musk’s political involvement is a major risk for SpaceX in 2027 and later. The article notes that Musk backed Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign, which helped him politically but also contributed to backlash against Tesla. It says Tesla sales fell 9% in 2025 and that its brand could take years to recover.

The Motley Fool reports that Musk then increased his political spending in the 2026 midterm cycle, putting $474 million into Republican efforts, including $224 million in Texas. Texas is where SpaceX and Tesla are based. The article says Texas shifted from Republican to Democratic control in the midterms despite that spending.

The report says Texas is important for SpaceX because Starbase is there, where the company develops, makes and launches Starship rockets and also works on satellite components and electronics. The article says SpaceX is less exposed than Tesla to consumer backlash, but it expects more regulatory attention and notes that environmental groups in Texas have already pushed back against its expansion plans.

The Motley Fool also says Starlink has faced controversy after a slowdown last month limited Ukraine’s military access to Starshield. Zelensky questioned whether Musk acted alone, while administration officials said the White House was not involved. The article says this has encouraged European governments to invest in alternatives.

AI growth may face a demand test

The Motley Fool says Musk has suggested on X.com that space-based data centers could help with the changing political environment. It says SpaceX’s AI division, which it renamed super intelligence, or SI, has been its strongest long-term growth area. The article says that segment grew 830% year over year in the third quarter.

Still, the report says there is no assurance that AI spending will keep rising quickly enough to support the large investments being made now, even if orbital data centers prove workable. It cites a recent Wall Street Journal study saying U.S. businesses and consumers would need to spend the equivalent of 8.8% of GDP each year on AI-related services by 2032 to justify current industry investment levels.

The Motley Fool says that level of spending looks unlikely because it would exceed what people spend on basic needs such as energy and transportation. It also says cheaper Chinese large language models are gaining share against U.S. competitors, which could spark a price-driven competition and squeeze margins. The article adds that SpaceX’s major customers, including Alphabet and Anthropic, may eventually slow their AI compute spending.

Valuation leaves little room for setbacks

The Motley Fool says SpaceX’s valuation is another major concern. It reports a market capitalization of $1.85 trillion and a price-to-sales ratio of 55, compared with the S&P 500 average of 3.74. The article says that makes the stock priced for near-perfect results.

At the same time, the report says SpaceX is still expanding quickly. It states that third-quarter revenue rose 161% from a year earlier to $14.6 billion. Even so, the article says uncertainty remains high and suggests investors may want to wait for a much lower share price before buying.