SpaceX falls after midterm results shift options positioning

Midterm results and the stock move

Moomoo reports that SpaceX shares fell after Democrats won strongly in the midterm elections. The article says the outcome changed the political setting for SpaceX overnight and that traders reacted to that shift first. It says Democrats won, including the Texas governor’s race, where Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott, according to reporting by Invezz and Bloomberg.

The report says the stock dropped about 6% in premarket trading after that political shock, then reduced the loss to 2.3% during the regular session. It adds that Wednesday’s decline came after a 3.62% gain on Tuesday.

Why Texas matters for SpaceX

According to Moomoo, Texas is important because SpaceX launches from Starbase in South Texas and is building data center capacity there. The article says Hinojosa has supported a moratorium, or pause, on new data centers. It also says the election result raised the possibility of closer congressional scrutiny of artificial intelligence companies and of Musk’s federal contracts, and it cast doubt on the timing of a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla.

The report says Dan Ives called Texas the biggest concern of the night for technology investors.

Negative gamma and key options levels

Moomoo says the share decline left SpaceX in negative gamma for options expiring on Nov. 4. In the article’s explanation, that means dealers who sold the options may need to hedge in ways that can intensify the move: if the price falls, they may sell shares, and if it rises, they may buy shares. The piece says this kind of positioning can push the stock further in the direction it is already moving.

The article says SpaceX is trading at about $138.06, below its gamma flip level of $141.46. It explains that the gamma flip is the point at which dealer behavior changes. The stock is also back above its put wall at $135, which the article describes as the level where put contracts are heaviest and which can act as a floor, but it remains below its call wall at $140, where call contracts are heaviest and which can act as a ceiling.

Business context and spending outlook

Moomoo says the market reaction was sharp because it is linked to the spending that supports SpaceX’s growth. The article notes that SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161%. It also says fourth-quarter capital spending is projected at $35 billion to $40 billion, following $19.6 billion in the third quarter.

The report says that is why permits, power, and incentives are central to the story.

What the options market is showing

The article says the options term structure points to a move that is concentrated in today’s expiration rather than lasting volatility. It says today’s expiry is priced at about 97%, compared with about 52% to 57% for later expirations.

Moomoo reports total open interest of 5.24 million contracts and a put/call ratio of 1.03, meaning about 103 puts for every 100 calls. It says implied volatility is 60.05%, while historical volatility is 56.79%, which the article describes as a modest premium rather than a panic-level reading. It also gives a rank of 19 and a percentile of 44%.

Positioning, support, and uncertainty

The article says probability analysis is split nearly evenly for today, with 50.22% assigned to one range and 49.78% to another. It also notes outside bands at 0% for today, which it describes as a model quirk rather than a guarantee.

Moomoo says only 3.47% of recent holders were in profit. It gives an average cost of $149.40, resistance at $150.20, and support at $131.60. The article also says that SpaceX and EchoStar have not confirmed any agreement related to Boost Mobile or access to its network for a Starlink Mobile service.