SPCX rises as Musk defends capex efficiency and Terafab talks resume

Overnight stock move and recent performance

Stocktwits reported that shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) climbed more than 3% in overnight trading late Sunday. The stock was quoted around $139 overnight, partly recovering from Friday’s 6% decline to $134.72. Stocktwits said the shares fell about 11% in October, which it described as the stock’s weakest month since July, and that SPCX is down 16% so far this year.

Renewed Terafab discussions with TSMC

The article said Musk may be easing his push to control Terafab, citing a DigiTimes report about renewed talks with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM). According to TriOrient research executive Dan Nystedt, the discussions would cover operational control, joint investment, technology, and bottlenecks in packaging and components. Stocktwits noted that Musk had said last month, “No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that.” It said he had left TSMC only the option of subleasing part of the site. TSMC chief executive C.C. Wei confirmed the talks last month, but said any participating fab would have to be run by TSMC.

Project timeline and capital spending debate

Stocktwits said Reuters reported that Terafab, the SpaceX-Tesla (TSLA) venture with Intel as a partner, is aiming for a first test chip around May or June 2027 and volume production in the third quarter of 2028. Musk responded on X to a projection that SpaceX could spend $470 billion over the next five quarters to reach 13 gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of 2027. He wrote that the company’s capex efficiency is “greatly underestimated.” The estimate came from Kyle Reidhead, co-owner of the investing media platform Milk Road. Stocktwits said Reidhead’s model assumes rapid construction would generate revenue to fund more expansion, with quarterly revenue reaching about $122 billion by late 2027 and $150 billion in debt. He also estimated that Nvidia could take 83% to 89% of the spending, or as much as $414 billion. Stocktwits said SpaceX already expects $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth-quarter capital spending, and that third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion, including $7.56 billion from AI.

AI buildout and Musk’s comments

The article said SpaceX has arranged $40 billion in chip and server financing through an affiliate of Apollo Global Management, with deliveries and leases expected to start in the first half of 2027. Musk said on Saturday that two buildings at Colossus 2, SpaceX’s AI computing complex, each had 220,000 Nvidia chips used to train AI models. He said a third building, called Gun Range, would have the same capacity, and that another building, Spam, would hold about 200,000 chips for running AI services after training. Musk said Gun Range was expected to be operational by the end of November and Spam in December. He also said there would be about 1.2 million Blackwell chips at Colossus 2 by the end of the year, referring to Nvidia’s Blackwell family.

Site details, lawsuit, and retail reaction

Stocktwits said the expansion includes a former food-storage facility and a police gun range. It said Colossus was first built for xAI’s Grok chatbot before SpaceX acquired xAI. The project is also facing an NAACP lawsuit that says gas turbines used to supply electricity operated without the permits required. On Sunday, Musk said other supercomputer projects cannot meet their goals, while SpaceX is already achieving its own. Stocktwits said he was responding to a post claiming Colossus 2 had more AI computing power than rival facilities. It also reported that retail sentiment for SPCX on Stocktwits moved to bearish from extremely bullish a week earlier, with message volume described as low. One user said the stock has key support at $130 and $135 and warned that a drop below $130 could lead to a deeper decline.