Sequoia Partner Sees SpaceX Revenue Surge; Tesla Merger Math Is Modeled

SpaceX revenue forecast and Maguire’s assumptions

Stocktwits reports that Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire said SpaceX could be entering a revenue surge similar to Nvidia’s recent growth. He projected SpaceX revenue of $51.5 billion in 2026, $273.8 billion in 2027, and $731.1 billion in 2028. In his model, the 2028 figure includes $569 billion from ground-based AI computing, $64.7 billion from Starlink, including Starshield, and $23.9 billion from Direct to Cell. He said the forecast assumes computing capacity reaches 10.2 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and 21 gigawatts by the end of 2028, along with $369 billion in capital spending in 2028.

Maguire said investors are underestimating SpaceX’s potential. He added that, absent what he described as a major disruption such as war, an AI moratorium or revolution, SpaceX could see a revenue ramp with only one recent parallel: Nvidia’s over the last three years. He also acknowledged uncertainty around computing revenue, buildout costs and Terafab spending, and said Sequoia has a large SpaceX position, making him “extremely biased,” as he put it.

Musk’s response and Maguire’s view of SpaceX’s moat

Stocktwits says Elon Musk responded to the forecast by saying, “I think we can do better.” Maguire answered that he thought Musk could. He described his estimate as a 25th-to-50th percentile case and said the market was not ready for higher-end estimates.

Maguire said his bullish view rests on SpaceX’s engineers, low-cost AI infrastructure and Starship. He described Starship as the biggest competitive moat in history and said the company’s technology and tightly controlled supply chain would be difficult for rivals to copy. He said his launch math starts with $20 billion in annualized Starlink revenue backed by about 400 Falcon 9 launches. He estimated that one Starship flight could replace the work of 20 Falcon 9 launches and could support about $1 billion in annual satellite-service revenue, or $5 billion over five years.

He also said he expects Direct to Cell to generate more revenue than Starlink in 2029 or 2030 under almost any scenario. He added that he thinks AI-compute pricing will behave more like oil production than broadband internet, which he said was overbuilt during the dot-com boom.

Other SpaceX AI-buildout ideas

Stocktwits reports that New Street Research outlined a possible faster route for SpaceX’s AI buildout: thousands of small computing sites connected through Starlink. The firm suggested 2,000 to 10,000 sites combining Nvidia hardware and Tesla batteries, with each site supplying 1 to 5 megawatts. It said these sites could draw from existing grid connections during off-peak hours and use batteries at peak times.

The report said this could avoid lengthy substation projects and local opposition that often affect larger data centers, but it also said rapid deployment would be difficult. New Street said pace is the key constraint. Each site would still need a lease, a grid connection and commissioning. It also said a 10-gigawatt rollout might require a year of Tesla battery-storage production, and it cautioned that 10 gigawatts in 2027 may be too aggressive even if the approach could speed deployments over time.

Hypothetical Tesla-SpaceX merger math and Tesla Robotaxi expansion

Stocktwits says Tesla investor Alexandra Merz, who is CEO of L&F Investor Services and known on X as @TeslaBoomerMama, modeled what different exchange ratios could mean in a hypothetical Tesla-SpaceX merger. Using Oct. 20 closing prices of $373.71 for Tesla and $147.79 for SpaceX, she calculated that a three-for-one exchange would value each Tesla share at $443, a 19% premium. A four-to-one ratio would imply $591, or a 58% premium, and a 5.5-for-one ratio would imply $813, or a 118% premium. She also said lower ratios would imply discounts, with two SpaceX shares equaling $296 per Tesla share and 2.5 shares equaling $369.

Merz also calculated ownership and voting outcomes. At a four-for-one split, former Tesla shareholders would own 51.4% of the combined company, while Musk would hold 33.2% of the economic stake and 73.7% of the voting power. At 5.5-for-one, Tesla shareholders would own 59.5%, while Musk’s economic stake would fall to 31.6% and his voting power to 70.5%.

Separately, Tesla announced another Robotaxi expansion, with rides in Fort Worth, Texas, set to begin Monday at 6 a.m. Central Time. Tesla investor and influencer Sawyer Merritt said it was the company’s first new-city expansion in three months.

Market reaction reported by Stocktwits

Stocktwits said retail sentiment on its platform was bearish for both TSLA and SPCX. It said message volume was normal for TSLA and low for SPCX. One user said they did not see a SpaceX merger justifying Tesla’s valuation and doubted SpaceX shareholders would approve a deal at a 400-plus price-to-earnings multiple. Another user said TSLA could move lower first before rising later, and suggested any merger could take months and happen sometime next year before dilution pressures the stock again.

Stocktwits also reported that TSLA had fallen 11% year to date, while SPCX had declined 16% over the same period.