The Motley Fool prefers SpaceX over Tesla for a 2030 holding

Musk’s two companies are evolving in similar ways

The Motley Fool reports that Elon Musk is not known for conventional businesses. It says his companies have focused on electric vehicles, reusable rockets, and artificial intelligence, and that Tesla and SpaceX are both trying to move beyond their original industries. According to the article, Tesla aims to become an AI-based transportation and robotics company, while SpaceX is expanding from aerospace into satellite communications, AI infrastructure, and software.

The article says Musk appears to be using a similar approach at both companies: turning hardware-heavy operations into technology-enabled service businesses. It then asks which of the two Musk stocks would be the better one to buy and hold through 2030.

Tesla’s outlook depends on AI plans that have not been proven

The Motley Fool says Tesla helped make electric vehicles more desirable and technologically advanced, but that the market is now more crowded. It notes that established automakers and newer EV companies are offering lower-cost alternatives, which makes Tesla’s competitive position harder to maintain. The article also says EVs still account for a relatively small portion of global auto sales, meaning there is room for growth but also dependence on pricing, charging access, and government support.

The company’s third-quarter results are presented as evidence of these pressures. According to the article, Tesla posted $28 billion in revenue, which was essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Vehicle deliveries fell 2% to 486,532 units, and GAAP net income dropped 43% to $787 million.

The Motley Fool says these results help explain why Musk wants Tesla to be seen as an AI company. It describes Robotaxi as an effort to turn Tesla cars into an autonomous ride-hailing platform that could create recurring revenue. It also says Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, could eventually handle work in factories, warehouses, and similar settings.

The article says Tesla has made some progress, including limited commercial operations for Cybercab and the start of Optimus production at the Fremont facility. But it adds that there is a difference between introducing new technology and building it into a profitable large-scale business. According to the report, both autonomous transportation and humanoid robotics still face uncertain regulation, operations, adoption, and economics.

SpaceX is already earning revenue from AI and connectivity

The Motley Fool says SpaceX is best known for reusable rockets, but it has also built businesses in satellite internet, telecommunications, AI computing, and software. The article says SpaceX generated $14.6 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 161% from a year earlier.

It says the company’s Super Intelligence segment, which includes AI infrastructure and software, produced about $7.6 billion in revenue. The article adds that this segment includes Colossus data centers that provide computing capacity to customers building AI models. It cites compute agreements with Anthropic and Alphabet that give access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia graphics processing units. The company is also developing Grok, its own AI chatbot, along with other software products.

The article says SpaceX’s satellite connectivity business brought in $5.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 69% year over year. It adds that Starlink ended September with 13.6 million consumer subscribers and that Starlink Mobile had 22 million monthly users. The Motley Fool says these figures show SpaceX expanding beyond basic satellite internet into a wider telecommunications business.

Why the article chooses SpaceX

The Motley Fool says Tesla could still generate strong returns if Robotaxi becomes widely adopted and Optimus becomes a successful robotics business. However, it argues that investors must compare that possibility with Tesla’s current results and a highly competitive auto market.

By contrast, the article says SpaceX already has several businesses that can support its valuation on their own. It notes that satellite connectivity already produces consistent operating profits, and that the AI infrastructure business is beginning to monetize computing capacity through large enterprise contracts. The article also says SpaceX faces risks, including heavy data-center spending, the cost of maintaining satellite networks, and intense software competition, which could strain free cash flow in the near term.

Even so, The Motley Fool says SpaceX has greater diversification and a better chance of monetizing AI across both enterprise and consumer markets than Tesla. It concludes that, if forced to choose only one Musk stock through 2030, SpaceX would be the selection because its current businesses offer a stronger base for growth while its AI efforts add more upside potential.