SpaceX shares fall 23% in a month as traders watch the $100 level

TradingKey says the monthly drop topped 20%

TradingKey reports that SpaceX shares were under pressure on November 3 Eastern Time, the day of U.S. midterm elections, with the stock moving between about $134 and $140. The shares briefly reached the company’s $135 IPO price, and the report says investors were watching to see whether the stock could fall again toward the $100 level. TradingKey says the monthly decline reached 23%.

The earlier rebound gave way to a new decline

According to TradingKey, SpaceX stock had formed a bottom around $100 in early August after a period of swings. It then recovered enough to regain the $135 IPO level and the $150 first-day opening price, and it rose to $176 on October 6, near the company’s June IPO high. The report says that rally did not hold, and the stock then continued lower.

CapEx and free cash flow are cited as the main pressure

TradingKey says the main reason for the pullback is heavy capital spending on AI and data centers, which has weighed on free cash flow. The report says SpaceX’s Starlink business has been expanding in airline and telecommunications uses, but that spending on xAI, rack-level data centers and heavy rockets has put short-term operating margins and free cash flow under strain. It also says valuation declines at Alphabet and Amazon, tied to what the report describes as overly large CapEx, affected SpaceX because the company has been viewed as a major vehicle for AI computing power and aerospace capacity.

Lockup expirations add to supply concerns

The report says SpaceX faced another negative factor at the end of October, when a lockup of 1.3 billion shares expired. TradingKey says some early institutional investors and executives used Rule 10b5-1 plans to sell and lock in gains, which created a short-term mismatch between supply and demand. It also says the market is focused on a further lockup expiration in December, when more than 90% of restricted shares are expected to be released.

The $100 level is presented as a key support area

TradingKey says the election-day backdrop encouraged de-risking before the vote, and that quantitative stop-loss selling was triggered after SPCX fell below $140. The report says that if political uncertainty continues and AI and tech valuations are further adjusted, the stock could move toward the round $100 level. It describes that price as an important long-term support area for institutional buyers, while also saying a deeper break below it is unlikely.